by George William Smith, © August 20, 2004

Behind The Scenes, The Story of Vindication, True Reason and Scipion

Vindication is dark bay/brown colt by Seattle Slew out of Strawberry Reason by Strawberry Road foaled January 28, 2000. True Reason is a dark bay colt by Silver Deputy foaled March 6, 2001. Scipion is a bay colt by A.P. Indy foaled March 9, 2002.  Scipion is a 3/4 brother to Vindication. Payson Stud bred all three with the help of George Smith, a pedigree analyst and bloodstock consultant known as The Matchmaker.  This is the story of the process that led to Vindication, True Reason and Scipion.

The Origin of Payson Stud
Payson Stud is part of the original Greentree Stud, near Lexington, Kentucky along with parts of Elmendorf and Duntreath Farm. Payson Stables came into being upon the death of Mrs. Charles Shipman Payson, a partner with her brother Jock (John Hay) Whitney in Greentree Stud. Upon Joan’s death her husband, Charles Shipman Payson, retained 130 acres of land and a share in the stallions, Stop The Music and Stage Door Johnny, but he sold the rest of his interest in the Greentree property to Jock, including the horses. While Charles was an equestrian he was not much involved in the thoroughbred industry. I’m sure that Charles knew more than he let on about thoroughbreds, but was wise enough to realize a little knowledge could be very dangerous. For example, looking at a Racing Form is a lot different than being able to competently apply the statistics found within, otherwise known as handicapping. If Charles were to build his own thoroughbred operation, he would either have to develop an interest in racing or allow someone else develop that thoroughbred operation for him. That someone turned out to be his new wife, Virginia Kraft Payson.

Charles’ marriage to Virginia has had an impact that may be described as significant on the thoroughbred industry in Kentucky. It did not start out that way. Virginia was interested in continuing the success of Greentree Stud, but she and Charlie essentially had to start from scratch with the exception of stallion shares. They did not experience beginners luck. Their original ventures whether it inexpensive (Romanair, first purchase for $17,000) or expensive did not result in horses worth what they paid.

‘As Virginia said to Sue Finley in Profiles in Racing, "We spent a lot of money and we bought a lot of garbage. The transition from being a writer to breeding horses was a very logical and useful one. As far as I’m concerned, a writer is really a researcher who goes to as many sources as possible to extract the salient points of a story then puts them all together and comes up with a point of view and a conclusion." The theory at which she arrived together with George William Smith, a breeding specialist from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada was that Americans were breeding too much speed into their pedigrees in the pursuit of early success.’

Charlie and Virginia began in the business with head start over most breeders. Land that had raised some of the best horses in North America, deep pockets and an interest in breeding and racing top-class performers. Head starts do help in this business at the beginning but it does not ensure success. Believing that knowledge gained from an unrelated business is transferable to the thoroughbred industry, often leads to failure for new breeders and owners. Those that have money are almost under constant attack bythose who want it and are willing to promise the moon to get it.

The thoroughbred industry has a long history of successful breeders and clever owners hiring experts to maximizing their chances of success. However, masquerading amongst them has always been a large number of people whose ideas and implementations have resulted in the loss of many hard-earned fortunes. Those with deep pockets are often the targets of such charlatans. After all, why try to sell a horse worth $1,000 to a person of limited means for $1,200 when you can get $100,000 from a person with deep pockets who is not directly involved (read not knowledgeable).

The key to success in the thoroughbred industry is industry-specific knowledge. Much as the ability to read and write requires learning each letter of the alphabet, the combinations that form words and what the words mean in the context that they are written, interpreting pedigrees correctly requires even more effort and time. In fact, interpreting pedigrees and implementing breeding strategies is far more difficult because there are no rules like "I" before "E" except after "C". Full brothers are often completely different in ability and type. To completely befuddle even the most knowledgeable thoroughbred analyst, a stallion may produce foals whose best distances are at the other end of the spectrum from that of the stallion himself (sprinters can produce plodders, plodders produce sprinters).

Those with deep pockets can buy the knowledge of others through the hiring of experts. However, the knowledge of a pedigree analyst is not easily transferred to those that wish to learn. A pedigree expert can teach industry-specific knowledge, but the process is so intense and time consuming that such transfer is rare. Mrs. Payson spent many hours learning and applying the principles that guide breeding thoroughbred racehorses. I had the pleasure of many hours of in-person and marathon telephone conversations with her on what we both knew and where we were going.

The Payson Plan
Mrs. Payson's objective was to purchase quality broodmares that would produce classic runners. Virginia and Charlie had lost enough money in the business to learn an important lesson: listen, learn, modify and apply. On October 22, 1981, Virginia wrote me and stated, "Another concern of mine is breeding untried mares to untried stallions— This doubles the risk of what may be produced. I should probably limit such matings to no more than 50% of my new mothers." I had a rule that states young mares need to be mated well-established sires that have had positive results at stud. Since most new stallions fail, putting a (near) maiden mare to an untested stallion is not a good way of maximizing chances of producing a classic runner. Breeders/owners can check out the foals of a well-established sire and compare what their young mare just produced from him and get a better idea of what the mare contributed to the match.

The 1981 Keeneland November Mixed Sale was the first of many sales for which I was hired as her bloodstock consultant. Our process was as follows:

Step 1: The first task was to go through the Keeneland November Sale and find mares that should produce good foals. I graded the mares from 1 to 10. While I searched through the catalogs, Virginia also had her young trainer, Blaine Holloway and several vets go through the barns and choose their favorites. Since, there were a lot of horses in the Keeneland November Sale the vets and trainer split the list, went through different barns and compared notes later.

Step 2 was that 5 a.m. phone call. I live in the Mountain Time zone, two hours earlier than Kentucky. We exchanged lists.

Step 3 was that I took a look at their choices and noted which of their choices I could live with and which I could not. They did the same thing with my list. If a mare appeared on the lists of all, the plan called for another look at her by all concerned.

Step 4 was for Virginia to make the call of which mares to buy. It was her money and her plan. It took a few years for Virginia to realize that price-paid often bore no resemblance to value.

After that 1981 Keeneland November sale, Virginia extended me an invitation to visit her and Charlie in Florida. She would interview me personally. "I am very anxious to meet you and have an opportunity to explore your theories at greater length. I have been reading books on genetics non stop—even got my hands on an original Bruce Lowe (1895), but would enjoy yakking with a pro." She was taking an active role in her own success. She hired Ted Carr. "An excellent and much respected chap to manage the broodmares in KY (managed Domino for 18 years)."

Virginia flew me by private jet to Miami and then by limousine to her residence at Hobe Sound, Florida. The only passenger, I was not alone. The pilot and copilot pleaded with me on the flight to get this lady some good winners. Apparently, Virginia was not the easiest to live with when her horses were running badly. Her horses were running badly.

During the time I spent with Virginia and Charlie that December she spent many hours picking my brain. I also learned a great deal about their operation and what they were attempting to accomplish. The conversations were high quality and fruitful. I learned. She learned. I remember that Virginia thought I was younger than my chronological age at first because she knew I was a high-class athlete, running in international races at the time. She had been burned in the industry. She was seeking young advisors that were on the way up and willing to work to earn their money. I saw the look in her eye (disappointment) to find that I was 37. By the time I left Florida, Virginia and I had entered into a five-year plan. She and I would work together for five years and if at the end of five years she was not happy with the results, the link would be severed and we would each go on our way. She would not penalize me for being 37. I was now a full member of the team.

As the Payson’s had deep pockets, commerciality was not a major factor. They were breeding to race and prove their own stock. Having been burned at the sales from the beginning, the plan called for breeding their own and racing the progeny.

From the start, Virginia and I focused on getting classic winners. I knew that it was likely that it would take more than one generation with the mares we bought to get a classic winner, so we often celebrated the birth of a nicely conformed daughter. We understood that America was ‘speed-crazy’ and getting more speed-crazy. We would aim at producing foals that had both soundness and stamina. If we needed speed, we could find it everywhere and put it into our pedigrees.

We were aware that when you breed for a classic winner, the horse is not likely to win early in the racing year so those lucrative 2yo stakes were not part of the plan. We were also aware that the search for a classic winner was likely to produce horses that could go a distance of ground, but not of sufficient speed to win quality races and cheaper stock that had some speed, but not enough stamina to get classic distances. She would cull the mares that failed to live up to their pedigrees and our expectations. One of the reasons for her ultimate success was that she rigidly culled the progeny and the mares. Horses were often donated, given-away, and/or not registered.

Opportunity Yields Success in the 1980's
Our hard work and her money gave her horses the opportunity to show what our cooperative effort could produce. With Carr de Naskra's win in the Travers Stakes-G1 in 1984, the Payson's had their first Classic winner. Her other Grade 1 winners in the 1980's were Uptown Swell [Bowling Green H.-G1 in 1986], and Milesius [Manhattan H.-G1 in 1988 and 1989]. She had her first millionaire with Salem Drive. Lac Ouimet followed with six Graded wins and over $800,000. Other Payson SW's in the 1980's were Wimborne Sky, River Scape, Rosarian Star, Tafara, Carolina Street, etc. Norberto took France by storm with a second place in a Grade 1, but got sick and died as a 3yo before he could really display a characteristic that was common with all Payson Classic-type runners. Payson runners got better with age and stayed sound.

Stamina and Soundness
From my research I knew that top-class stamina sires often showed high-class speed themselves as 2yo’s (Prince John, Stage Door Johnny, Hail To Reason, etc.). With the right mix and match using this type of sire, a late-developing high class 2yo has a terrific chance to become a classic winner. As a breeding-to-race operation, Virginia would depend on soundness, stamina and racing brilliance to maximize her success.

Virginia wanted to have her runners race as long as they were sound. Early retirement was never in her plans. It was more important to her for the good of the sport that the public needed to see top-class horses in action for more than one or two seasons, than the extra dollars she could earn by sending her colts off to stud at four. She loved to see her runners compete and win against the best. I proved that we could work together to breed top-class, sound runners. Salem Drive and Lac Ouimet, his half brother, Milesius each won Graded stakes from ages 3-7. Uptown Swell won stakes from ages 3 thru 8.

The Classic Process
Thanks to the opportunity Virginia gave me with her horses in the 1980's, I had refined my breeding theories to give her and my other clients a realistic chance of producing classic horses. My theories would lead to a Horse of the Year, two Eclipse winners, a Broodmare of the Year, at least 124 stakewinners of which 44 have won or placed in Graded races and at least 48 mares that became stakes producers.

At no time should the reader imply from this article that there were no failures. There were plenty of horses that had to be culled, but Virginia culled them and I learned from my mistakes. Learning to maximize a prospective foal's chance of Classic success, was long, slow process and still unfinished.

First, I use an established source of stamina. This means young, untested stallions are out, even if the young stallion has a stamina-laden pedigree and ran to it. Using untested stallions can be a recipe for success of commercial operations when great salesmen spin pedigrees and racing achievements. This also means I do not rely on speed influences even though they are superior sires like Mr. Prospector or Northern Dancer. Northern Dancer is a Versatile chef de race of mine [very similar to Intermediate in the Varola system] and an integral part of the success of many Classic horses, but he is not a source of stamina to me.

Second, I view each pedigree as a minefield. I am not in awe of the famous ancestors in a pedigree. Instead, I want to know who they appear in the pedigree through. I love it when a renowned ancestor is through one of their best progeny. A good example of that is a cross of Bold Ruler through his son Boldnesian. But because Bold Ruler is in the pedigree doesn't mean squat to me if the son or daughter does not merit my attention on his or her own. I will only forgive bad sons of any renowned stallion if a close look at the stud performance of that stallion shows that the horse I am looking at is an exception to the rule.

Third, I do not necessarily penalize a broodmare for being unraced or having a poor race record. On many occasions, if I believe that the broodmare is too heavily oriented toward stamina to have raced well, I will not view her as an impediment to overcome. In fact, I often use such mares to improve the chances of producing a Classic runner.

Fourth, to ensure the greatest chance of soundness I will rely on stallions that are not only good stallions, but also excellent broodmare sires, even though their own unsoundness may have ended their racing careers. This means I will use Mr. Prospector freely if I need the speed, but not Raise A Native. I love to use Hail To Reason for the stamina and his ability both as a sire and as a broodmare sire. Hail To Reason is a Hardy chef de race of mine. Hardy chefs of race are sources of stamina and they are outstanding both as sires and broodmare sires. Buckpasser, Round Table [and his sire Princequillo] and Nijinsky II are Hardy chefs de race of mine.

A 'Near Fatal' Mistake
In 1991, Virginia was seeking mares to breed to her newly retired stallions Salem Drive and Lac Ouimet. St. Jovite was en route to being named as Co-Champion 2YO and looked to have a great future both as a racehorse and later as a sire, since he was a full brother to Lac Ouimet. Since her stallions were untested I looked for established broodmares, by good broodmare sires to give her stallions the best possible chance of producing Classic runners.

It was a clear mistake on my part. In North America if you are trying to make a stallion, you breed him to mares that will produce foals that come quick and early. It was important that by yearend your stallion would be highly ranked in terms of winners and gross earnings. I recommended and agreed to a stud fee of $1500 for both Lac Ouimet and Salem Drive. I had assumed that we could make both stallions by using a solid broodmare screening process for outside mares and that we would send the mares that she owned that did not fit either stallion to outside stallions. Pinhookers and commercial breeders cannot silver-tongue foals of stallions that stand for $1500 into huge profits sothey avoided her stallions.

To make matters worse, I was not allowed to screen the outside mares for Lac Ouimet or Salem Drive. I offered to screen such mares at a fee of $25.00/mare and was refused even though it would cost me more than that to do a decent job. I compounded the problem by not pursuing the matter. I earned my niche in this business by not being the 'yes' man to anyone. I often disagreed with Virginia and was not afraid to tell her so. In fact, I believe that is the reason I stayed around for so long in her thoroughbred operation.

Time would always show that I was acting in her best interest and that those silvertongued individuals would sooner or later show themselves for what they were. I let my pride sell out Salem Drive and Lac Ouimet's chances at stud. Virginia made a second mistake by believing that at least one of her two stallions would be a success by virtue of its pedigree and race record. My input with her broodmare band was to choose which stallion to breed to each of her mares. To cover her bases, she then switched stallions in the next breeding season. So if I chose Lac Ouimet for the 1991 breeding season, Salem Drive would most often inherited the mare the next year and again I kept my mouth uncharacteristically shut. Mares that did not fit either stallion still went to one of them unless the inbreeding would be too close. All the lessons that she had learned over the years went right out the window and I stood silent.

Finally, after returning home from Kentucky on November 25th I faxed Virginia my thoughts on what was happening at Payson Stud the next day. Usually, Virginia and I were very candid with each other, but on this visit my thoughts were so negative that I later let my fax machine carry my thoughts. It was the coward's way out. No matter, my comments fell on deaf ears. She was not prepared to listen. Her head was still in the clouds, celebrating St. Jovite's success in Europe.

I faxed the following statements, "From what I've seen neither Lac nor Salem had their books screened properly. After a couple of years, good breeders will tend to remember the bad horses produced from these stallions and not the few good ones, so this gives me reason for concern for both Lac and Salem. Increasing the number of mares bred to Lac and Salem may in the short run bring in more capital at first, but judging from the lack of screening done on both of them, their books may fall off dramatically as their foals are found to be running in the cheapest of claiming races." [Note: this is exactly what happened to Salem and later to St. Jovite though I wish it wasn't so.]

"I looked at the weanlings by Salem Drive and Lac Ouimet in the paddock. These were bad looking weanlings and many have no racing future at all, they had so many conformation deformities. Perhaps, time will prove me wrong, but I am not hopeful for a lot of breeders that bred to either Lac or Salem with the wrong type of mares."

"Sorry, to have not been more positive in the last part of this fax, but you really should see those weanlings in that paddock. They are a bad advertisement for Payson Park. I hope you don't find my remarks offensive in this fax, but I feel that our relationship has always flourished because we always talk straight with each other. While I have been wrong on occasion, I have always believed it was important to tell you the truth as I saw it, knowing that you respected people that were honest with you."

When St. Jovite arrived at stud, due to his early retirement, I asked $35 to screen outside mares and was refused. Virginia and I both repeated our mistakes, except that she outdid mine by breeding her mares almost exclusively to St. Jovite. Thus, most of her mares had one chance each with Salem Drive and Lac Ouimet and then were switched to St. Jovite, regardless of whether the mare fit him or not until it was proven that he was not the next coming of Pleasant Colony.

Salem Drive, Lac Ouimet, and St. Jovite were all classic runners. All three had Classic pedigrees. There is stamina written all over their performances and pedigrees. Virginia's broodmare band was steeped in stamina and most of the top foals of her mares did their best in stamina Classics. A stamina sire to a stamina mare can produce a Classic winner if either the stallion or the mare showed outstanding speed at two. But if the speed is lacking at two, it almost always it produces a slew of horses that can only win [if at all] at the bottom of the claiming ladder. I said "Near Fatal" in the heading of this part of the article, because Lac Ouimet succeeded despite the odds against him. His success as a stallion has been phenomenal given his book and due to outside mares and the blue-collar speed they brought into the mix. St. Jovite attracted outside commercial mares and was thus mated to a majority of mares with stamina-oriented pedigrees. St. Jovite may yet succeed as a significant broodmare sire as he resides in an area of the world where there is an excess of speed that needs to be balanced through stamina in the mare.

Pretty Reason, A Huge Bargain

My role had changed from selecting the best stallions for her mares and helping her buythe right broodmares to just helping her buy broodmares that would produce runners for her stallions. In the 1991 Keeneland November Mixed sale I searched out and recommended the purchase of Pretty Reason for the following reasons.

First, she was already proven. She had proved she could hit a home run as her Silver Court, a Grade 3 winner of $520,492 by non-descript Flip Sal who was still racing at age 8 [sound]. Most of her other foals were winners, exactly what young stallions need.

Second, Pretty Reason was unraced and by my favorite stallion Hail To Reason. There was a strong probability that she had inherited a lot of the stamina of Hail To Reason and that was why she was unraced. There was speed in the tail-female line as her dam was by a son of Nasrullah out of a mare by Eight Thirty out of a mare by Pharis, but it was obviously not expressed in Pretty Reason.

Third, she was carrying a foal by Strawberry Road. I thought Strawberry Road would make a good stallion in North America due to hybrid vigor and all that Australian and New Zealand blood. [It should be noted here, however, that I was not sold at that time that he would make a good broodmare sire because of the sires on his tail-female line.] I viewed the prospective foal's pedigree as speed bred to Classic sire to Classical runner as Classic potential. To me, the mare was worth her purchase price just to get that foal. It is interesting to note that just looking at the duplicated ancestors in the prospective foal would give the impression of a speedy foal since the foal would carry Eight Thirty 5,4; Nasrullah 5,4; and Nearco 5,5. But unraced mare by a stamina sire by a Classic runner with Aussie and Kiwi blood shouted Classic to me.

Fourth, Pretty Reason could be bought cheap. After Charlie died, Virginia went from being fast and loose with her money to being overly tight. She relied on her stallion Carr de Naskra [good thing he became a significant stallion] and the stallion shares she had previously purchased to keep her breeding costs down. I found the best way to get fresh blood into the racing operation was when she was in the market for a broodmare. Interestingly, only once did I get a commission for helping her buy a broodmare. She would lend me the use of her houses and her cook, treat me like a king while I was there, sit me at her table on Breeders' Cup Day, but no commissions to any pedigree advisor. I happily enjoyed her company as she forced me to push the limits on what I could accomplish with my pedigree analysis. In fact it gives me great satisfaction that I helped her produce a lot of significant racehorses without buying that success. Let me put to rest any notion that Virginia bought her way to success. She could have. She didn't. Pretty Reason was bought cheap at $20,000. In fact, if it weren't for Northern Sunset and her success at stud, Pretty Reason would have been her best bargain as she was carrying a Strawberry Road foal. Strawberry Road just months earlier had two runners earn Grade 1 victories as 3yo's [Dinard, Santa Anita Derby; Fowda, Hollywood Oaks].

Fifth, though age 20 Pretty Reason was carrying a foal that would be foaled about mid March. That would give plenty of time to get her back in foal. I also liked the fact that she rarely missed producing a foal. With any luck we might get two or three more foals from her. Unfortunately, Pretty Reason was barren to Salem Drive the first year and the next year died foaling a Salem Drive foal that also did not survive on May 9th, 1994.

Strawberry Reason

Strawberry Reason arrived 9 days later than expected on March 17, 1992. According to my personal list of chefs de race, Strawberry Reason has the following Dosage Diagram

Dosage Diagram of Strawberry Reason

This method of looking at the distance orientation of Strawberry Reason indicates that she is balanced in terms of speed and stamina, with speed further back and stamina in the forefront of the pedigree. The usual consequence of such a diagram is that soundness is not an issue as there are two close up Hardy chefs that transmit soundness to the pedigree. Usually a horse with this type of diagram will slowly mature into an outstanding runner, but not be particularly good at two unless the competition is very weak. Since the 4th generation will not appear in the progeny of this horse, she should be mated to stallions that have chefs de race close up in their pedigree to be fashionable. Her best distance should be between a mile and sixteenth and a mile and an eighth.

She was sent to Payson Park in Florida to begin her racing preparation. Her trainer would be Roger Attfield. Roger Attfield became one of Virginia's trainers after she bought Fairy Garden as a racing and/or broodmare prospect at Keeneland and decided to keep her in training with her trainer of record [Atfield]. Interestingly, Virginia, Charles McGinnes [a very knowledgeable conformation and pedigree expert friend of Virginia and I, owns Thornmar Farm in Maryland] and myself were going through catalog pages and potential buys during a meeting at her home when we took up the case for buying Fairy Garden. When we decided she was a likely buy, Virginia asked Charlie when she would sell. Charlie looked at the hip number and the time and said something to the effect that there might be just time enough to get to Keeneland before she sold. In a flash we were on the road and just got to the back of the pavilion when Fairy Garden stepped up as next to be sold. Within minutes Virginia had bought her.

Virginia sent Fairy Garden back into racing and with Attfield as trainer. He won a couple of Grade 2 races with her. Based on these results, Virginia sent him a couple of other horses, one of which was Strawberry Reason.

Virginia has always had a fondness for Canada and many of her horses have been named for her favorite places in Canada [Laurentide, St. Adele, St. Jovite, Lac Ouimet, etc]. Strawberry Reason made her debut for Virginia on July 27, 1994 as a 2yo at Woodbine, in Ontario, Canada. She finished 3rd in a 5 furlong MSW race beaten 7+ lengths.  Seventeen days later she raced in a 6 furlong MSW race finishing 5th after taking an early lead and fading. She was done for the year and sent back to Payson Park to get ready for her 3YO career.

As a 3yo and in training at Payson Park, her first start came at Gulfstream Park and finished 5th. She finally broke her maiden in a MSW race at Hialeah on March 25th at a mile and a sixteenth in 1:44.17 by 3 and 3/4 lengths over The Big Strawberry [I'm not kidding]. In all of her previous races she would show speed, be one or near the lead then fade. On April 14th she tried turf at Keeneland and failed miserably, again leading and stopping, even though the winning time was a pedestrial 1:37.42 for a mile. Two weeks later on dirt, she won at a mile and a sixteenth in the good time of 1:44.40, beating Hair Cut into 3rd place [again I am not kidding]. Two weeks later on May 26th she won again at the same distance at Churchill Downs. She then failed to fire in an allowance race two weeks later and finished 6th, beaten 10 1/2 lengths. Seeking blacktype and perhaps easier company she was sent to Arlington Park where she race 3rd in the Arlington Oaks-G3, beaten only 3/4 of a length for it all, by Niner's Home [a half sister to Home At Last].  Encouraged by her strong performance, Attfield sent her to Philadelphia Park for the Cotillion-G2 but she finished 5th in a lack luster performance on September 23rd.  Strawberry Reason won the biggest race of her career at Laurel in the Martha Washington-G3 at a mile and a sixteenth in 1:44.62 by two lengths [well rated, 3 wide, driving]. It was her last win, though she subsequently placed in the Davona Dale [at Laurel] and Personal Ensign [at Monmouth]. She retired into Virginia's broodmare band with 17 starts over two seasons and 4 wins, 1 second, and 3 thirds while earning $153,226. She only won at a mile and a sixteenth, which was pretty much what her dosage diagram suggested would be her best distance. For me I loved the fact that she raced to her diagram as such mares often are very consistent as producers if you can find what stallions work best with them.

From Breeding-to-Race to a Commercial Operation
When Strawberry Reason entered the broodmare band in 1997, there was no choice as to whom she would be mated. By the 1997 breeding season Salem Drive had produced one stakewinner out of a Payson mare, but only one other from 107 foals [4 stakeplaced]. His stud fee had been raised from $1500 to $2,500. At that time Lac Ouimet had had his stud fee raised from $1500 to $3500. He had produced 4 SW's [one from a Payson mare] and 7 stakeplaced runners, but like Salem Drive none were outstanding at the time. It should be noted that the second crop of Lac Ouimet would eventually reach 9 SW's. Obviously, the foals in this crop were not early maturers. St. Jovite had his first foals racing in 1996 and seven of 11 runners were winners, with two stakeplaced [both out of Payson mares].  Strawberry Reason would go to St. Jovite. That mating would result in Holy Reason.

Holy Reason was foaled on the last day of January 1998. Holy Reason carried Northern Dancer 5,4 through two sons and Flower Bowl 4,5 through a son and a daughter. Early on Holy Reason had shown a bit a brilliance and I remember the farm manager being elated at seeing his first breezes at Keeneland. Holy Reason placed at two and was a winner at three, but retired with earnings of $32,810 due to a bowed tendon and donated to a good home.

Strawberry was again mated to St. Jovite in the 1998 breeding season, which resulted in the filly Berry Blessed foaled on February 1, 1999. Weaned on May 10th, the filly drew good marks from those who inspected her. She was later put in the Keeneland September Sale and sold as hip #2424 for $22,000. According to my records she is unraced and is now in the hands of Brereton C. Jones and dropped a foal in 2004.

By 1999 Virginia was paying the price for breeding to her own stallions out of loyalty and keeping tight control on her purse strings. Of the three stallions only Lac Ouimet was performing at a level that can support a breeding-to-race operation. However, Lac Ouimet was the least favored by the farm of all three. Salem Drive and his good looks and St. Jovite on his racing ability overshadowed Lac Ouimet. Lac was paying the bills with his outside mares, but interestingly enough through 2003, none of his top 25 foals are out of Payson mares. I sent my own mare to Lac Ouimet because she fit him like a glove, resulting in my own high-class sprinter Cache In who is ranked as his 11th best foal.

By 1999 It was becoming obvious that St. Jovite was becoming less and less commercial. Virginia decided after 20 years to switch to a purely commercial operation and seek outside stallions. It is pretty easy to see why she made the change. One needs to look no further than Strawberry Reason. She was a Grade 3 winner out of a producer of multiple Graded winners that was by a chef de race. Her first foal had placed at two in good company and yet her second foal was cataloged (see above) as hip #2424 at Keeneland September.

When Virginia went commercial I was happy and sad at the same time. For a long time the only real sire selections I had done for her was for the daughters of her mares that could not be mated to her stallions because the inbreeding was too close. Now I could choose the best stallion for the mares.

I was sad because she had so much fun when she had a good horse racing in her colors. I loved to see that sparkle in her eyes, the blue outfit to match her colors. I was also sad because going commercial meant that she might easily fall into the trap of buying mares that would produce commercial foals and matings arranged simply on the basis of being sold for high profits without regard whether would produce good foals or not.

In the early days of Payson Stud, Charlie and Virginia actively sought out stallion shares. However, aside from those shares that Charlie inherited only the share in Pleasant Colony turned out to be a bargain. But turning commercial meant that stallion shares made sense. Virginia wrote to me stating, "I am leaning more and more towards tried, proven stallions, even if old. It is such a craps shoot out there. I bought a share in Broad Brush because I could not get to him any other way." Virginia had learned her lessons well. Tried and established stallions are often the best value in Kentucky. Common sense suggests that this should be true, but it is often just the opposite. Smarty Jones just retired to stud. His share price at a reported $650,000 is no bargain. It will be a bargain only if he turns out to be a significant stallion from the start and lives to sire foals for at least 5 crops. Of course, if one is only interested in selling his foals for a profit, regardless how they later perform and have the golden tongues wagging, then a Smarty share might produce a profit, but a bargain?

Virginia has recently proved to be an exceptionally astute buyer of stallion shares. By cross-checking my top stallion selections for her mares who were recommended for commercial or breeding-to-breeding to race, she additionally purchased shares in A.P. Indy, Crafty Prospector [when he was 21!], Gone West, Silver Deputy A.P Jet, and Unbridled's Song. All are still active and doing well at stud, except A.P. Jett with whom I had no input. She has a foal coming in 2005 from her share in Crafty Prospector. It is wonderful for a good sire and broodmare sire like Crafty Prospector to be fertile at 25.

There were some stallions, like Rahy that offer no shares as they are privately owned. On August 20, 1998 I faxed her that my top stallion selection for Strawberry Reason was Seattle Slew. On September 25, 1998 Virginia purchased a breeding contract to Seattle Slew for Strawberry Reason for the 1999 season, a mating that would produce Vindication. That was an incredibly fast turn around for Virginia. Procrastination was not only a regular occurrence at that time of year when breeding decisions needed to be made, it was the norm. But the decision that resulted in Vindication was made at the right time and for the right reasons.

Vindication
Seattle Slew was my #1 pick for Strawberry Reason for four major reasons. First, a Seattle Slew foal would be commercial, In 1998, he was 24 and an outstanding success as a sire and a broodmare sire [in case the mating produced a daughter]. His son, A.P. Indy now had 12 SW's from his first crop and was the top ranked stallion of his crop year. In 1998 his young son, Event Of The Year, had won the Jim Beam S-G2 and had been an early favorite for the Kentucky Derby-G1. Seattle Slew himself was the third Leading Sire by AEI right behind Danzig and his son A.P. Indy. Interestingly, Strawberry Road was the 7th ranked Leading Sire in 1998 thanks to the exploits of Escena G1, etc., which solidified the commercial call.

Second, I have my own 'nicking' program that indicated Seattle Slew's pedigree was a good match for the pedigree of Strawberry Reason to produce a top foal and vice versa.  The norm is that neither the sire nor the dam's pedigree match up well. Occasionally, the pedigree of the sire matches well with that of the mare or the family matches well with the sire [Sire A is good for Mare A, but Mare A is not good for Sire A or vice versa]. It is rare that they are good for each other.

I do not like the term 'nicking' as it often limits the thinking process. For example, Seattle Slew bred to Weekend Surprise by Secretariat produced A.P. Indy. For many breeders, consultants and owners, that constitutes a nick. If they owned a Secretariat mare and could afford a Seattle Slew season, they would base that mating on the outcome that produced A.P. Indy. Even if they owned Weekend Surprise does not mean that the mating would produce another A.P. Indy. After all, Devongate earned a whole $1,188 and he was a full brother to A.P. Indy. Use another Secretariat mare and the chance to produce another A.P. Indy falls off dramatically.

Third, Seattle Slew was an old stallion. He would not be around for much longer. Since he went exceptionally well with Pretty Reason, I argued get the season and use it. If he died before the breeding season, she could always switch to another commercial stallion.  Since she was due to foal at the end of January or the first week in February, the chances were good that she would at least have a few covers [if need be] to him. That Strawberry Reason would get in foal just by looking at the stallion was also a strong selling point.

I had been pushing for years for Virginia to bite the bullet and breed to top-class stallions with non-Northern Sunset line mares of hers. She had been forced to breed outside the farm with her Northern Sunset line mares because the inbreeding was too intense, but it seemed that whenever she took the plunge her mare would come up empty. Now that she was changing to a commercial operation, she had to use commercial stallions. Seattle Slew must have been on her wish list for a long time, since I often recommended him for one of her mares.

It is not usual for some breeding farms that are governed by solid breeding principles to accumulate a broodmare band that are actually quite similar in nature. In this case, if a stallion matches one of their mares extremely well, the chances are that he will match several others. On farms that operate by strict commercial factors or simple luck their broodmare bands that require a wide variety of different type stallions to succeed.

Fourth, Seattle Slew was a great 'fit' for Strawberry Reason and vice versa. Top pedigree

analysts seek to find patterns in the sire that 'fit' the pedigree of the dam and patterns in the pedigree of the dam that 'fit' the sire's pedigree. I have often referred to these patterns as parts of a jigsaw puzzle that need to be 'fit' together to make sense or to see what each of these pieces added together in the right way can produce.

A foal by Seattle Slew out of Strawberry Reason would be inbred to Hail To Reason 4,3 through two daughters [Reason To Earn and Pretty Reason] tying together the two pedigrees. The inbreeding itself is not significant to me unless it meets certain criteria.  Vindication is a text book case of positive inbreeding.

Hail To Reason was an excellent sire. Wonderful, except that the two crosses were from daughters that did not add to Hail To Reason's stud performance as a sire. In fact, they worsened his statistics as a sire. Reason To Earn raced for three seasons, winning but two races in 16 starts and was once second for earnings that totalled all of $6.075. Her SSI was above average at 1.12, but far below what a mating to Hail To Reason usually produced. Pretty Reason did not even get to start in a race. I excused the racing performance of both mares because stamina-oriented mares often end up unraced or racing at a level far below one would expect considering the excellence of their sire.

Importantly, Hail To Reason was also an excellent broodmare sire. Since we are talking about two daughters, it is extremely important to look at how each did as a broodmare to determine the worth of the Hail To Reason connection. Reason To Earn hit a home run with her first foal, Bold Reasoning [Jersey Derby, 2nd in the Met, SSI=32.35, an excellent sire and broodmare sire though he died very young]. It cannot be emphasized enough that the cross of Reason To Earn in Seattle Slew is through Bold Reasoning. Pretty Reason as a broodmare produced two foals that won Graded stakes, Silver Comet [Cliff Hanger H.-G3] and Strawberry Reason [Martha Washington-G3]. Again, it cannot be emphasized enough that the cross of Pretty Reason is through Strawberry Reason.

A mating to Seattle Slew with Strawberry Reason would also carry Nasrullah 55,65 through Bold Ruler and Glamour [sire's side] and Princely Gift and Amarullah [dam's side]. I use a comma to denote in which half the duplicated ancestor appears.

• Bold Ruler was a top sire and broodmare sire and since his cross is through Boldnesian, also a top sire and broodmare sire that cross of Nasrullah is very solid.

• Glamour was a top racemare who was also the dam of 4 SW's and 3 SP'd runners.  Her cross is through one of her SW's [Poker] who was the broodmare sire of Seattle Slew so the Glamour cross is also rock solid.

• Princely Gift is a chef de race of mine in the Versatile grouping. He is a positive influence both as a sire and as a broodmare sire. This cross of Nasrullah is a little shaky since it comes through his obscure son Rich Gift. However, since Rich Gift is the broodmare sire of Strawberry Road who was doing well as a sire, I also consider this a solid cross of Nasrullah.

• Amarullah was a decent sire (AEI=1.34, CI=1.35) but not a good broodmare sire. I do not view this cross of Nasrullah as a positive factor to use in support of the mating of Strawberry Reason to Seattle Slew.

A close look at the pedigree shows that there also is strength along the tail-female line that would justify mating Strawberry Reason to a stallion with as expensive a stud fee as Seattle Slew. The dam of Pretty Reason is Mysore. Her sire is Amarullah. Since I have already ruled out his significance in this pedigree, the additional strength must come through her dam, Teleran.

Teleran's 3rd foal was Cornish Prince by Bold Ruler. Holy Smoke! A perfect example of a pedigree 'fit'. Bold Ruler was rock-solid in the top half of the pedigree through his tailmale line [Boldnesian to Bold Reasoning to Seattle Slew]. If Cornish Prince was just any thoroughbred, this 'fit' would carry no significance. But Cornish Prince was a major SW at 2 and 3 [Sanford, Jim Dandy, etc.]. And Cornish Prince was a major sire. His AEI/CI ratio was an excellent 2.15/1.89 with 10% SW's. This certainly reinforces Vindication's chances of making it as a runner and later as a sire.

Certainly, from my viewpoint there was an excellent chance for Seattle Slew to connect [fit] with Strawberry Reason to hit a home run. Virginia supplied the money and put the pair together. I could hardly wait for the first start of Vindication. When Vindication won his first start in a manner that suggested he could run much faster if need be, I quickly put out the word that he was the real thing.

Certainly a time of 1:10.60 at six furlongs did not merit such an overstatement. But I was hoping that the pedigrees had fit as I had projected they might. Sure, I was up there in the tree, with the saw in hand looking like I might tumble out on my head at any time. But I was also dreaming and isn't what this industry is all about? A second win at 6 furlongs did not stifle my bragging and I suffered considerable vitriolic attacks that he was just beating up on poor fields. When he won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile in the pathetic time of 1:46.90, I must admit I was disheartened. Sure, he won by 6 easy lengths, but 1:46.90.  He was no Seattle Slew who could run that fast in a common gallop. I kept a rather low profile until he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in the decent, but not outstanding time of 1:49.60. I shouted his name from the rooftop of Northlands Park. He had won by 2 1/2 lengths over horses that had ran fast times like Kafwain [5 furlongs in 57.50, 8.5f, 1:42.75] and Hold That Tiger [7fT in 1:20.40]. He was the real deal.

How good a racehorse was Vindication? We'll never know. He retired undefeated, untested due to injury. I never saw the injury coming. His early foal reports from those who scored him according to his conformation at Payson Stud were all positive. There was no suggestion of potential soundness problems in his pedigree. In fact, my opinion was and is that his is about as sound a pedigree that one can construct. The fact that he sold for $2.15 million also suggests to me that no one saw his early retirement coming.

According to my Predictive Sire program, Vindication scores 17.50 Genetic points and 12.56 Racing Ability points for a GRA score of 30.06. This is a high score, but not high enough to ensure his success without having his book thoroughly screened. My program could not give him very many racing brilliance points because he never ran a really fast time while winning and this part of the program relies on fact, not wishful thinking. In any case, if he was just lollygaging out there or racing on dead tracks, his progeny will tell us in a few years.

When Vindication was voted Eclipse Champion 2YO Colt and Farda Amiga [also a Payson bred] was voted Eclipse Champion 3YO Filly in 2002, I thought Payson Stud was a shoo-in for an Eclipse Award as Champion Breeder. However, life and Eclipse voting is often not fair. In an outrageous display of everything that's wrong with the Eclipse Breeder's Award, Virginia Kraft Payson did not even get on the short list. From 24 mares that produced 20 live foals in 2000, two were Eclipse Champions. Ten percent of her foals of 2000 were Eclipse Champions and both were from mares bred by Payson Stud.

It is fact that I ended up with ten percent of that foal crop, Match The Cache and Cache At Hand. One contacted EPM [colt] and the other tried to leap a metal feed trough [filly] and found out that she was no jumper. Both were by Lac Ouimet and the reason that I took them. They would not bring enough at the sales to justify letting them go for peanuts. So much for my own lucky touch, although the filly may yet produce a nice foal to repay my investment.

True Reason
In my August 20, 1998 fax [see above], where I recommended Seattle Slew as my favorite commercial stallion for Strawberry Reason, I also stated that for pure stud fee value I put Silver Deputy on top because my program had identified the mating as a super nick. To cover our bases in case she switched from a pure commercial operation to a combination of both commercial and breeding-to-race or back to a breed-to-race operation, I suggested that a mating to Silver Deputy made a lot of sense. On January 20, 2000 I faxed Virginia my reaffirmation of the positives of Silver Deputy and "a share in this fine stallion would make for an easier decision." One February 28, 2000, she purchased a share in Silver Deputy. Here were my reasons for a mating to Silver Deputy.

First, I called the mating a super nick because Silver Deputy not only matched up extremely well with the pedigree of Strawberry Reason, but she with his pedigree. The best way I can describe it is that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, like root beer and vanilla ice cream in a root beer float.

Second, Silver Deputy was doing exceptionally well as a stallion. He was proving to be not only a survivor, but a mainstay of the Kentucky breeding industry. Often stallions do so well in another locations that Kentucky calls and off to Kentucky they go. Most fail miserably and are sent into exile like my province of Alberta. Silver Deputy originally stood at stud in Ontario, Canada but money talks and Kentucky called. Incidentally, after the death of the successful sire Bold Ruckus and exportation of Silver Deputy, Ontario has been bereft of any significant sires.

Third, the first Silver Deputy mares had recently been sent to stud were producing foals that were doing very well on the track. This was unusual and a great sign for those who bred to Silver Deputy. The first foals to become broodmares are usually a stallion's worst as they were too deformed to race or so totally lacking in talent that it was useless to race them. Through stupidity very young mares are rarely culled in this industry.

Fourth, the foal [later named True Reason] would carry Northern Dancer 4,5 through two of his best sons [Vice Regent and Nijinsky II, both top sires and broodmare sires. True Reason would also carry Nasrullah 66, 6,5 through Nashua [good sire, not nearly as good as a broodmare sire], Bald Eagle [ditto], Princely Gift [see previous comments] and Amarullah [as above, not very positive]. Note that the four crosses of Nasrullah in the pedigree of True Reason are not nearly as strong as those in his half brother Vindication.

True Reason, a dark bay colt was foaled on March 6, 2001. Everyone knows how Vindication turned out, why have 99.99% of people never heard of True Reason?  Because he sold for $250,000 at the 2002 Keeneland September Yearling Sale as hip #710 to Japanese Interests and ended up racing in Japan under the ownership of U Carrot Farm, trainer F. Kojima. So how's he doing? He was unraced at two. From his first three starts, he had one win and two seconds. His win came in a MSW race at 8.94 furlongs on firm turf in 1:48.10 under 123 pounds, which is good time in any country. On June 6th, 2004 he won his second race, a stake at the same distance, turf condition and course in 1:48.00. That makes two SW's from two outside stallions. Virginia, why did you wait so long? No problem! Perhaps, Strawberry Reason will have 20 foals. She hasn't missed a year yet and her 8th foal is due in early April.

Scipion
Vindication and his excellent conformation was very encouraging to the farm and he was going in the right direction. Sometimes colts go backwards just when you think they are going to be extraordinary individuals, but not with Vindication when the planning for the next mating to Strawberry Reason was being done.

In a November 2000 conference of Payson staff and advisors in Lexington, we was decided to that A.P. Indy would fit nicely into the commercial operation, since his dad fit wonderfully and A.P. Indy's bottom line was exceptional whether we got a colt or a filly.

In January 2000, Virginia purchased a season in A.P. Indy. The season would be used with one of my favorite mares and an absolutely smashing mating to Dry North. Dry North had been one of my favorite mares ever since Virginia loaned me the use of her home in Lexington after I had been in Saratoga with her and was headed home to Canada via a meeting in New Orleans [in August…I was crazy]. Dry North and I would talk along the fence line. On the trip with me was my fellow pedigree expert Barton Frauenfeld, also from Edmonton. Driving a golf cart we often toured the farm, but Dry North was in a near paddock so the conversations were often in those few days we shared. Dry North was a 2yo on a lay up to recover from a problem I don't remember.

After Dry North's first foal was weaned, I saw it in a paddock while staying at Payson Stud. I was attending the Keeneland November Mixed Sale. It was a defining moment for me. I can't tell you how many weanlings there were in that paddock, but one looked far superior to the rest. The group I was with all agreed. This was one mighty nice filly.  Asking the farm manager whose foal it was, he said, "Dry North's". Dry North had delivered on what to some was one of my earlier questionable matings [her sire was Temperence Hill]. That filly was the eventual SW Fly North, dam of Farda Amiga.  Sadly, Dry North has a breeding record similar to the outcome of many of Evil Knieval's stunts: Not pregnant, Fly North, Aura Of Glory, Not Pregnant, Palander, Classique, Aborted, Spinning, Aborted, Aborted, Rapid Thunder, Absorbed, Aborted [currently still in foal to Include]. Wouldn't it be great if she carried to full term and the foal was a colt to carry on the Broad Brush line? Ah, hope, the lifeblood of this industry.

The season to A.P. Indy was used with Strawberry Reason in 2001. That mating produced Scipion, a dark bay or brown colt foaled on March 9, 2002. There were plenty of reasons for us to hope that Scipion would be special. First, his dad Seattle Slew was a good nick in my program Strawberry Reason and vice versa (see above), so perhaps would be A.P. Indy. He was at the time too young for my nicking program to really solidify whether he was a good nick or not. But I was hopeful, since Strawberry Road was starting to come around as a broodmare sire. He originally started out slow like most broodmare sires, but his daughters were now proving that with the right matings good horses were a fairly common result.

Second, a mating to A.P. Indy would be certainly commercial. He was commercial in the beginning and was one of the few in his crop that was still commercial in 2001. The share in him made this a very simple and bright decision.

Third, A.P. Indy had a stamina-laden pedigree [Seattle Slew over a mare by Secretariat over a mare by Buckpasser over a mare by Sir Gaylord] and was producing young fillies and colts that could race well at two. This was a sure sign of Classic potential in a mating with the right type of mare. Since Strawberry Reason's first foals were all good looking horses, especially the Seattle Slew colt that would later be named Vindication, a 3/4 brother or sister to him had a good chance to be one of A.P. Indy's best foals.

Fourth, there was an excellent 'fit' with A.P. Indy, just as there had been with Seattle Slew [see previous explanation]. Although, the Seattle Slew connection had been moved back one generation, the female half of A.P. Indy's pedigree was a 'fit' in its own right by adding an additional cross of Bold Ruler via Secretariat and one of his best daughters [Weekend Surprise]. An additional cross of Turn-To through was added through a good source in Sir Gaylord.

Scipion was entered in the 2003 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale as hip #107.  Whereas his 3/4 brother Vindication was sold for $2.15 million, Scipion was an RNA with the highest bid at $1.9 million. Virginia kept ownership. I was out-of-the-loop at that sale so I have no insights to add.

Scipion made his first start as a 2yo at Saratoga on August 14, 2004 in a seven furlong MSW race. Despite having only lukewarm workouts, he went off as a heavy favorite. At the time, I chalked it up to the fact that he was a 3/4 brother to Vindication. I watch the race via simulcast.

For the first third of the race, Scipion ran similar to the style of Vindication. Then Scipion suddenly took himself out of the race and was no longer seen on the screen. The announcer stated, "Scipion has dropped 8 lengths back of the last horse." When they turned into the stretch I saw Scipion make a little bit of a move to bring him up to the back of the pack. I said to a friend I was sitting with, "At least he's showing a little bit of run." Then whoosh, he flew past the field to win. The Daily Racing Form chart said, "SCIPION dropped back inside while racing greenly, angled out into the stretch, settled suddenly above the eighth pole, finished fast outside and was up with a rush in the final yards." The time was a slow 1:24.35 for the distance. How good is he? I don't know, but it is possible that he and Vindication share the lack of fast times in common.

Strawberry Reason Foals of 2003, 2004 and 2005
• Strawberry Reason produced a dark bay or brown colt by Saint Ballado, foaled on April 1, 2003. I had no input into the decision to use Saint Ballado.

• Strawberry Reason produced a dark bay or brown filly on April 12 via a mating to Storm Cat on a foal share. I recommended against such a mating.

• Strawberry Reason is in foal to Gone West on a May 8th breeding. I recommended against such a mating.

Please note that because I had no input or recommended against a mating, does not mean that the mating will not produce good, if not outstanding foals. In fact, decisions by my clients against my selections show independent thought, which is always good if done for the right reasons.