The Relevance of Statistical Analysis and Genetics by Bill Lathrop @

My own layman’s study of genetics, concentrating particularly in the areas of research involving the X chromosome and mitochondria dna, has convinced me that there is a possibility that aptitudinal traits might be transmitted through multiple generations of the female family, and that selected mares may act as conduits of this genetic material into succeeding generations. 

Over the past several years I have been involved in research seeking to develop a profile for the modern day racehorse based on influences handed down through family matrons.  The primary difficulty was in finding a common denominator with which I could anchor a formula. 

Current studies have given rise to questions regarding the validity of the origins of some of the female families, and with this in mind, I moved closer to the present time to the year 1900, which I consider the birth of the modern era of horseracing. 

My initial idea was to find influential race mares, and/or broodmares that were prominent at that time in our history, but I came to realize that the accomplishments of the individual mares were not an important issue.  Their only relevance was in the evaluation of what their descendants did on the racetrack.  Referencing my notes, the word “conduit” led me to the next step and thus to the common denominator that I had been seeking.  I would evaluate the statistical data using the “conduit mare” born circa 1900, and never before that date, as my focal point to disseminate the collected data.

I traced the winners, spanning the past 40 years, of over 400 graded races in North America, and additionally, over 100 Group races in England, Ireland, Germany, Italy, Brazil, Argentina, and Australia, to their conduit mares.  The total number of races involved exceeded 16,000.  I broke the races down into distances run, and utilized the same categories as Dr. Roman uses in his dosage index, B-I-C-S-P.  The next step was to place the winners, via their conduit mares, into the appropriate aptitudinal classifications.  After evaluating the placements, I used a formula to insert each mare into the appropriate classification.  Certain mares appeared in significant numbers in all of the categories so, for them, I coined the term “Transcendent Mares”, since their descendants transcend categorization. These mares would be listed in the formula as B/P (Brilliant/Professional) placing them at both ends of the equational spectrum.  Other mares had high numbers in more than one category, and were dual classified as such.  The results of the applied formula have been encouraging.  A case in point; Bertrando has a sprinters dosage of 4-7-3-0-0, with no stamina points.  How was he able to win the 1 and ¼ mile Pacific Classic?  His “Conduit Mare” profile may offer clues: 4-5-6-4-3.  There are many instances of this sort of statistical difference leading me to believe that there is a definite female contribution.

Does the application of statistical analysis have relevance to genetic research?  Does genetic science have any relevance to statistical interpretation and analysis?  It seems to me that one might lead to the other.  If statistics show marked trends, then, I would hope that someday genetic research will offer scientific evidence to validate the statistical analysis.  Until that day, all we can do is keep searching.

 Bill Lathrop © 2004